Making decisions under uncertainty: The Prudent Judgment Approach, European Journal of International Security, FirstView available here
This article offers an alternative conceptualisation of prudence as encompassing four normative components: reflective reasoning, experience, long-term well-being, and moderation. Prudence involves a pattern of reflective reasoning informed by experience in the pursuit of long-term well-being through moderate judgements and actions. This conceptualisation allows distilling a set of prescriptions for guiding deliberation and choice under uncertainty, which I name the Prudent Judgement Approach. An analysis of John F. Kennedy's deliberations at the start of the Cuban Missile Crisis uncovers evidence of prudent judgement and demonstrates the practical feasibility and value of this approach. Although the numerous cognitive and procedural sources of errors in decision-making under uncertainty are by now well understood, there are few prescriptive approaches for guiding the process of formulating judgements and making choices. This article shows how prudence can help improve the quality of deliberative processes and policy choices.
Review of Brent Steele, Restraint in International Politics for H-Diplo/ISSF Roundtable 13-12 (August 2022)
Indian Identity in 1980 (2020)
This report summarizes the predominant national identities and discourses in India in 1980. The data is generated by inductive discourse analysis of a sample of elite and mass texts. The analysis shows that in 1980, despite a broad societal consensus that India is a democracy, there is a growing divide between the people and the country's ruling elite and bureaucracy. We find an economy in dire straits, a society that is increasingly divided due to communalism, casteism, and social and economic inequalities, and widespread concerns about the weakening of the country's democratic institutions due to the incompetence and corruption of the governing elite. The full report is available here.
This report is part of a qualitative and quantitative open source dataset of great power national identities from 1950-2010 available on the Making Identity Count Project website.
Indian Identity in 1970 (2019)
This report summarizes the predominant national identities and discourses in India in 1970. The data is generated by inductive discourse analysis of a sample of elite and mass texts. The analysis shows that in 1970, there is widespread consensus among elites and masses that India is an independent democracy with constitutionally enshrined separation of powers and liberties. However, mass discourse is deeply concerned about rising political instability, entrenched class, caste and communal inequalities, and poor leadership. Likewise, although there is general consensus that India is a developing economy, there is a disagreement between the country’s leaders who support socialist policies and the rest of society which prefers liberal policies. The full report is available here.
This report is part of a qualitative and quantitative open source dataset of great power national identities from 1950-2010 available on the Making Identity Count Project website.
'Scenarios 2030' in Developments in the Gulf Region: Prospects and Challenges for India in the Next Two Decades, ed. Rumel Dahiya (with Medha and Rahul Chauhan) (2013)
In this chapter, we explore the key social, technological, economic, environmental, and political trends and drivers affecting the future of the Gulf countries. Based on this analysis, we develop three alternative ideal-type scenarios of the likely geostrategic context of the West Asian region in the year 2030. This strategic foresight exercise was conducted to help inform the Indian Ministry of External Affair's long-term policy planning.
More information and purchasing options for the edited volume is available here.
India at 75 - Still a poster child for democracy? (August 2022)
With India celebrating 75 years of independence on 15 August this year, how is its democracy faring? And what are the prospects of Modi’s India serving as a bulwark against China’s authoritarian expansion in the Indo-Pacific?
An Italian translation is available here via China Files.
The US lags behind its industrialized counterparts in climate action. For instance, last December, the 27 EU member states reached an agreement to cut their emissions by 55 per cent by 2030. Even Chinese President Xi Jinping announced at the UN General Assembly last year that China would seek to peak its emissions by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2060. In this op-ed for the University of St Gallen, I argue that rather than making its international commitments contingent on action from other countries, the Biden administration might increase its chances of finding genuine common ground with both China and India if it announces its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
The Unraveling States of America (November 2020)
The world has watched the 'greatest country on earth' spiral into violence and chaos this year. The apparent decline of the US today paints a spectacular contrast to the triumphalism of the post-Cold War years. in this post for the 9DASHLINE, I explore why this year and this election will be a turning point for the US, irrespective of the outcome.
The border dispute with China has provided a national distraction but COVID-19 is spreading out of control in India. Leadership is a crucial variable as we evaluate outcomes so far and consider how things may evolve in the coming weeks. In this post for the Duck of Minerva, I draw on Weber’s ‘Politics as a Vocation’ to explore Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership of the coronavirus pandemic in India.
The False Promise of 'World Guru' India (June 2020)
The global COVID-19 pandemic has aggravated the fragmentation of the prevailing international order and reinforced the weakening of multilateral institutions. As Trump and Xi battle over who can be the bigger bully, what kind of leadership can we expect from ‘World Guru’ India? I take a closer look at Modi's 'human-centric globalization' and 'aatmanirbharta' in this article for the 9DASHLINE.
There are good reasons for South Asian countries to cooperate as they tackle the fallout from the COVID-19 crisis. However, SAARC is not the most viable forum to broker that cooperation. I explain why in this article published on 9DASHLINE.
India has long treated South Asia as a constraint on its ambitions and dismissed its concerns. Six years on, there is little evidence to suggest that its foreign policy establishment has changed how it views the region. In this article, review the Modi government's South Asia policy in my latest article published on 9DASHLINE and South Asian Voices.
All Our National Identities (March 2020)
I discuss some findings from my ongoing research on India's national identity from 1950-2010 for the Making Identity Count Project in this episode of Hamsini Hariharan's podcast, States of Anarchy. I explore some salient continuities and changes in Indian identity discourses since independence, and how these relate to the current battle between secularism and hindu nationalism.
Diversity in academia (February 2020)
In this episode, I join Alia Amir of Uppsala University and Amir Massoumian of SOAS to talk about our experiences with diversity in academia on Ann Wand's academic podcast, Coffee & Cocktails.
All content and pictures are ©Manali Kumar, 2022.